Earnings Previews

Albertsons heads into its fiscal second-quarter report with something to prove. The company opened the year pitching fiscal 2026 as a return to earnings growth and the start of its long-term algorithm. It has since cut its full-year adjusted EPS outlook to $1.75 to $1.85, down from $2.22 to $2.32. That is roughly a 20% reset. When the grocer reports before the bell on October 13, the question is whether that lower bar is believable or whether the slide has further to run.

Citigroup heads into its third-quarter report with an awkward contrast. Operationally, the bank just delivered its best quarterly revenue in a decade, lifted returns well above its own targets and upsized its buyback to $30 billion. Yet the stock has slipped 6.7% since that report, trailing the S&P 500 by more than 9 percentage points. The October 13 release, due before the open, will test whether that skepticism is justified. It also tests whether management was simply being prudent when it declined to raise full-year targets while flagging heavier second-half spending.

Domino's heads into its third-quarter report with an unusual split personality. Customers keep showing up in growing numbers, yet the dollars each order brings in have stalled, and U.S. same-store sales have slid for four straight quarters to essentially flat. Add a brand-new chief executive, Joe Jordan, taking the reins this month, and the October 13 release before the open becomes less about whether Domino's can still win orders and more about whether it can turn those orders into growth again.

FB Financial heads into its third-quarter report with a split personality. Last quarter the Nashville lender delivered its best organic loan growth since closing the Southern States deal, with annualized growth of 11.6% and a sharp improvement in operating efficiency. Yet the same report showed provisions more than tripling, a lower core margin outlook and a trimmed deposit forecast. The stock has since slipped, so the October 13 release is a test of which half of that story deserves more weight.

Goldman Sachs heads into its third-quarter report with an odd mismatch between its operating story and its share price. Management spent the past year describing a franchise firing on more cylinders: a near-record banking backlog, record equities revenue and raised asset and wealth management targets. Yet the stock has fallen 16.8% since the last report while the S&P 500 gained 2.5%, a gap of more than 19 percentage points. The October 13 release, due before the open, is a test of whether the market has spotted a crack the narrative has not yet acknowledged.

Johnson & Johnson enters its third-quarter report as a company running at two speeds. Its pharmaceutical franchise is pulling hard on the back of Tremfiya and a wave of newer launches. Its MedTech business, meanwhile, lost momentum in cardiovascular devices, the area that had been its growth engine. Last quarter the drug side was strong enough to support a guidance raise. The question now is whether it can keep doing so while Abiomed and electrophysiology work through problems that management described as temporary.

JPMorgan Chase heads into its third-quarter report on October 13 with a problem most banks would envy: its last quarter may have been too good. Management told investors in July that conditions were getting close to as good as they get, raised its net interest income outlook, improved its card loss forecast and posted a 23% return on tangible common equity. The question now is whether that quarter marked a plateau or a new baseline, and the stock's muted reaction since suggests the market has not made up its mind.

UnitedHealth Group has spent the past nine months telling investors its turnaround is ahead of schedule, raising its full-year outlook at every turn. The stock market has stopped listening. Shares have fallen about 17% since the company's last report even as the S&P 500 edged higher, leaving the managed-care giant roughly 20 percentage points behind the broader market. When UnitedHealth reports before the open on October 13, the question is less whether it can clear a modest bar and more whether it can persuade a skeptical market that its improving Medicare story outweighs a commercial business that keeps getting worse.

Wells Fargo enters its third-quarter report with an unusual split between what the business is doing and what the stock is saying. Last quarter, management described acceleration nearly everywhere: faster revenue growth, record investment banking fees, double-digit loan and deposit gains now that the asset cap is gone, and returns sitting essentially at the bank's 17% to 18% medium-term target. The market sold the stock anyway, fixing on one line in the outlook: net interest margin would compress modestly again in the third quarter before stabilizing in the fourth. This report is where that promise starts to be tested.

AZZ raised its full-year outlook last quarter, lifted its dividend 20% and hinted at a near-term acquisition. The stock has slipped anyway. Since that report, shares are down 5.8% while the S&P 500 gained 3.0%. When the industrial coatings company reports fiscal second-quarter results after the close on October 13, the question is whether the operating momentum management described is real enough to close that gap, or whether the market is right to hesitate.

ASML spent the past two quarters raising expectations, and the stock has barely moved on the news. That mismatch frames the October 14 report. Management lifted its full-year revenue outlook twice in a row, pushed its gross-margin target up by three percentage points, and said demand is no longer the binding constraint. Supply is. The third quarter is the first real test of whether ASML can convert that order strength into shipments as fast as its guidance implies.

Bank of America heads into its third-quarter report with an awkward disconnect. Management spent the last call raising almost every dial it controls, from net interest income to operating leverage to returns, yet the stock has slid 8.5% since then while the S&P 500 gained 3.2%. That leaves a bank whose narrative has rarely sounded stronger trading as if the market doubts the second half can keep up with the first. The October 14 report, due before the opening bell, is where that doubt either gets answered or confirmed.

BlackRock enters its third-quarter report with a curious disconnect. Last quarter's call was among its most confident in years, featuring record revenue, an operating margin of 45.9% that was the best in nearly five years, and a bigger buyback. Yet the stock has slipped 3.1% since then while the S&P 500 gained 2.7%. The October 14 release, due before the open, has to show that the operating momentum management described is durable enough to justify paying up again.

Fastenal heads into its third-quarter report with the strongest sales momentum it has shown in years and a lingering margin problem it has not yet solved. That gap frames the October 14 release, due before the opening bell. It is also the first quarter under Jeff Watts, who took over as chief executive in July from Dan Florness. Management promised no change in strategy, so this report shows whether the business can keep improving through the handoff.

Morgan Stanley heads into its third-quarter report with an unusual disconnect. The firm just strung together back-to-back record quarters, crossed $10 trillion in client assets and raised its dividend 15%, yet its shares have fallen 14.6% since that July report while the S&P 500 gained 2.7%. When the bank reports before the open on October 14, the question is less whether business is good than whether the market has been right to treat the second quarter as a peak.

Progressive heads into its third-quarter report with an awkward split in expectations. Wall Street is asking for higher year-over-year profits, yet it is also modeling the slowest revenue growth in recent memory for a company long known for rapid expansion. That combination makes this report less about whether the auto insurer can grow and more about whether its underwriting discipline can keep carrying earnings while the top line cools.

State Street heads into its third-quarter report with an awkward mismatch between what management says and what the market is doing. In July the custody giant raised its full-year outlook for the second straight quarter, introduced ambitious medium-term targets and posted records across nearly every fee line. Yet the stock has slipped 5.8% since then while the S&P 500 gained 2.9%, and bullish sentiment has faded from 38.8% to 21.2%. The October 14 report, due before the open, is a test of whether that skepticism is warranted.

Sono-Tek heads into its fiscal second-quarter report with an awkward gap between what management has promised and what Wall Street seems to want. The company has reaffirmed that it expects fiscal 2027 revenue of roughly $20.91 million or slightly more. Analysts, however, are modeling about $21.45 million for the year ending February 28, 2027, which puts the Street above management's stated outlook. For a company of this size, that roughly half-million-dollar difference is not trivial. It amounts to most of a month's sales.

Equity Bancshares spent the past year proving it could absorb an acquisition. Now it has to prove that the combined bank can grow on its own. Last quarter management described its legacy markets as roughly a quarter to nearly a third stronger than a year earlier, said the Frontier cost saves were fully in hand, and nudged its expense outlook lower for the back half of the year. The third-quarter report, due after the close on October 14, is the first real test of whether that confidence shows up in loan balances, margin and the expense line at the same time.

Home BancShares heads into its third-quarter report with a split personality. Profitability has never looked better, with a record second quarter powered by the Mountain Commerce acquisition, yet management has stopped forecasting loan growth and warned that roughly $1 billion of payoffs would hit this quarter, more than last time. The October 14 release, due after the close, will show whether acquisition-driven earnings power can outrun a shrinking organic loan book and competitors willing to lend at rates the bank will not match.

BNY Mellon heads into its third-quarter report with an odd mismatch between its fundamentals and its share price. Wall Street expects earnings per share to climb roughly 19% from a year ago, yet the stock has dropped 8.1% since the company last reported. Over the same stretch the S&P 500 gained 3.3%, leaving BNY about 11 points behind the market. That gap sets up the central question for the October 15 release, due before the opening bell. Was the selloff an early warning about the earnings trajectory, or did it simply open a gap between price and performance that a solid quarter could begin to close?

Bank7 enters its third-quarter report with a question it has not faced in a long time: what happens when a famously steady, organically grown Oklahoma lender finally finds a use for its stockpiled capital? Last quarter, management moved from describing a fruitless search for acquisitions to unveiling a court-supervised bid for roughly 71% of Century, with a stated intent to pursue the remaining minority stake later. The auction's proposed end date of September 3 falls inside the quarter being reported. That means this release should replace speculation with facts about whether Bank7 won, what it paid and how quickly the deal can close.

Commercial Metals heads into its fiscal fourth-quarter report with a promise to keep. Last quarter, management delivered its best core EBITDA in three years yet still had to explain away a messy stretch in North American Steel, blaming a pileup of maintenance outages, wet weather and an unexpected jump in scrap costs. The company described those problems as temporary and reaffirmed its outlook rather than raising it. That outlook implied a sequential EBITDA lift of roughly $40 million to $50 million in the final quarter. The October 15 release, due before the opening bell, is where that claim either holds up or falls apart.

Ericsson heads into its third-quarter report with sales roughly flat and profits slipping, and its stock has been marked down as if trouble is coming. Shares have fallen about 10% since the last report while the S&P 500 gained nearly 4%, a 14-point gap. The question for October 15 is whether the numbers justify that pessimism or show the market has gone too far.

First Horizon heads into its third-quarter report with an unresolved tug-of-war. The bank is growing loans at the fastest clip in years, but it is paying more for deposits to fund that growth, and its net interest margin has started to slip. When the Memphis-based lender reports before the open on October 15, the key question is whether balance-sheet momentum can outrun margin erosion. The market has so far bet that it cannot.

Three months ago ManpowerGroup did something it had not done in years: it told investors the business had moved past stabilization and into recovery. Organic, days-adjusted constant-currency revenue growth jumped to 6% in the second quarter from 3% in the first, and management reaffirmed that pace for the third quarter. The October 15 report, due before the open, is the first real test of whether that acceleration was a durable turn in the staffing cycle or a single strong quarter that got a lot of credit.

Nordea arrives at its October 15 report with a problem that is less about crisis than inertia. The Helsinki-based lender earned $0.42 per share last quarter, the same figure it posted a year earlier, on revenue of $6.28 billion that was essentially unchanged from the $6.25 billion of the prior-year period. That kind of consistency is reassuring for a bank. It is less exciting for shareholders, and the market's lukewarm response since the last report suggests investors want evidence that earnings can move off a plateau.

Prologis enters its third-quarter report with an awkward contradiction. Three months ago management all but declared victory over the industrial real estate downturn, raising nearly every guidance line at once and describing the company as entering its next phase of growth. Since then the stock has fallen 11.3% while the S&P 500 gained 3.5%, leaving shares at $128.68, barely above the $127.29 low of the post-earnings range and well below the 200-day moving average near $137.88. Either the market doubts the recovery story, or it is pricing in risks that the operating numbers have not yet shown.

Three months ago Charles Schwab delivered about as confident a quarter as a brokerage can produce: record revenue, record trading, a jump in core asset gathering and a full-year outlook raised on nearly every line. The stock has since gone the other way, falling 7.1% while the S&P 500 gained 4.4%. That disconnect makes the third-quarter report, due before the open on October 15, less about whether Schwab is doing well and more about whether the market believes the second quarter was a peak rather than a new plateau.

TSMC enters its third-quarter report with an awkward kind of problem: demand is so strong that the costs of meeting it are starting to show up in the margin line. Management raised its full-year growth target for the third straight quarter last time and called AI demand essentially insatiable. It also warned that the steep ramp of its N2 process would pull gross margin lower. The October 15 release, due before the open, is the first real test of whether revenue momentum can absorb that dilution without disappointing a market that has already priced in a great deal of good news.

Three months ago U.S. Bancorp delivered the most confident quarter of its current cycle: its first full-year revenue guidance increase, a closed BTIG acquisition that beat its own early targets, and a plan to bolt on Amazon's small business card portfolio. The stock has since fallen about 9% while the S&P 500 gained 3.5%. When the bank reports before the open on October 15, the third quarter has to show that the improving narrative is real, even though the period also carries the messiest accounting of the year.

Wipro heads into its fiscal second-quarter report with the market already braced for little growth, and the question is whether the company can show that last quarter's stumble was a pause rather than a trend. Three months ago management delivered a sequential revenue decline, an operating margin that broke below its usual band, and a guide whose midpoint pointed lower again. The stock has been treated accordingly. This report needs to show that the bright spots management highlighted are big enough to matter.

Marsh heads into its third-quarter report with a story that has two very different halves. Last quarter, consolidated underlying growth accelerated to 5% from 4%, consulting surged and the company raised its capital return plans. Underneath those headlines, though, the insurance pricing cycle kept getting worse. Guy Carpenter slipped into negative territory and Mercer Health cooled sharply. The October 15 release, due before the opening bell, should show which half is winning.

PNC Financial Services enters its third-quarter report with an awkward split between what management has been saying and what the stock has been doing. Over the past three quarters the bank raised nearly every line of its full-year outlook, lifted its dividend 18% to $2 a share and posted its strongest quarter of the year. Yet the shares have fallen 13.5% since that July report while the S&P 500 gained about 3%. The October 15 release, due before the open, is a referendum on whether that skepticism is justified or simply misplaced.

Alcoa enters its third-quarter report with a striking disconnect. Last quarter the company posted the strongest numbers in roughly a decade of operating history, unveiled a franchise-altering acquisition and sounded more confident than at any point in the past year. Yet the stock has fallen 7.2% since then while the S&P 500 gained 5%, and shares now trade near $43, close to the $41.01 low of the post-earnings range and far below the 200-day moving average near $58. The market is clearly questioning how durable the second-quarter peak really was.

Interactive Brokers enters its third-quarter report with a gap between how the business is running and how the stock is trading. Last quarter, nearly every operating gauge accelerated at once: commissions, net interest income, client equity, trading volume and account growth. Since then the shares have slipped 3.2% while the S&P 500 gained 4.4%, and sentiment has turned from clearly bullish to modestly bearish. The October 15 report, due after the close, will show whether that caution is a sensible pause or a misread of a company still gaining speed.

Independent Bank Corp. heads into its third-quarter report with a profitability story that keeps getting better and a growth story that keeps getting smaller. Last quarter the Rockland Trust parent widened its core margin for a third straight period, lifted fee income and stepped up buybacks, yet it also cut its commercial real estate outlook for the second time this year. The October 15 release, due after the close, should show which of those two narratives is carrying more weight.

Three months ago, J.B. Hunt told investors the freight market had finally turned. Record intermodal volumes, the first positive intermodal pricing since 2022 and a dedicated pipeline above its pandemic peak gave management its most confident tone in years. Then, at a September investor conference, the company guided third-quarter earnings to just $1.72 to $1.81 per share, well short of the $2.12 the Street was expecting at the time. The report due after the close on October 15 has to reconcile those two messages: is the recovery intact and simply getting more expensive, or did the upturn stall before it reached the bottom line?

Simmons First National heads into its third-quarter report with an unusual mismatch. Management spent the last call sounding more confident than it has all year, signaling it would beat its own January targets on expenses, net interest income, operating leverage and pre-provision net revenue. The stock has not followed. Since that report, shares have gained just 1.8%, trailing the S&P 500 by more than three percentage points. The release after the close on October 15 is a test of whether that improved tone can show up in the numbers before the market gives it credit.

Three months ago, WaFd looked like a turnaround that had found its footing: loans were growing again, efficiency was improving, and the stock had re-rated well above tangible book value. Since then, the market has taken back much of that optimism. Shares have fallen 22% since the last report while the S&P 500 gained 5%, leaving the stock at $29.92, well below its 200-day moving average of $34.29 and only about 2% above its post-earnings low of $29.26. The fiscal fourth-quarter report on October 15 needs to show whether that selloff reflects real cracks in the story or simply a market that stopped giving the bank the benefit of the doubt.

Cohen & Steers heads into its third-quarter report with a split personality. The business side of the story has rarely looked better: net inflows of $1.3 billion last quarter were the strongest in four and a half years, assets under management crossed $100 billion, and the operating margin moved back above 36%. The stock tells a different story. Shares have fallen 5.7% since the last report while the S&P 500 gained 4.7%. The report on October 15, after the close, will help show which of those two signals deserves more weight.

Citizens Financial heads into its third-quarter report with a peculiar disconnect. Three months ago management delivered its most confident call in some time, lifting its full-year operating leverage target, saying revenue was running ahead of its January plan and describing loan growth that had spread across commercial, private banking and retail. The market has not believed it. Shares have fallen 14.5% since that report while the S&P 500 gained 3.3%, a gap of nearly 18 percentage points. The October 16 release, due before the opening bell, is where Citizens has to show that its growth story is real and affordable, not simply loud.

M&T Bank heads into its third-quarter report with a curious disconnect. Its last quarter was arguably its best in years, with record earnings, the fastest loan growth since 2012 outside of acquisitions and pandemic programs, and a long-awaited turn in commercial real estate. Yet the stock has fallen 11.1% since that report while the S&P 500 gained 3.1%. The October 16 release, due before the opening bell, is a test of whether that rally in fundamentals was a durable inflection or a high-water mark.

Three months ago, Regions Financial sounded like a bank that had finally put its problems behind it. Charge-offs were falling, loan growth was picking up, the dividend went up 13%, and management said credit had largely normalized. The stock has since fallen 16.4% while the S&P 500 gained 4.7%. When Regions reports before the open on October 16, the question is whether the operating story has actually weakened or whether the market has simply stopped believing it.

Truist enters its third-quarter report with a split personality. Profitability is improving, fee businesses are humming and capital is being returned at a brisk pace, yet the core lending spread has disappointed for two straight quarters. The stock has sided with the pessimists, and the October 16 release, due before the opening bell, is the first under Mike Lyons, who took over as chief executive on September 1. That makes this report less about one quarter's earnings than about whether the bank's story of deliberate, returns-driven trade-offs still holds.

Travelers heads into its third-quarter report with a split personality. Underwriting profitability, investment income and new business production all improved last quarter, pushing core return on equity to 24.9%. Yet the price increases that fuel future earnings keep cooling. The October 16 report, due before the market opens, should show whether Travelers can keep growing its earnings engine as the pricing cycle softens.